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Separate facts from hypotheses

An agent diagnosis should distinguish observed evidence from an explanation still to be tested.

Documentation reviewed2026-10-26 · 2 min read
  1. Why
  2. Predict
  3. Try
  4. Inspect
  5. Explain
  6. Save evidence

Predict before you try

Can a plausible model explanation grant authority or establish that the saved case recovered?

Try it: Try the reasoning exercise →
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Start with the operational need

An agent diagnosis should distinguish observed evidence from an explanation still to be tested. Use the same MicroBank contract and operating evidence from Platform engineering. The selected baseline and existing delivery owner must be known before an agent can be given a meaningful task.

The agent says the consumer caused the delay. What supports that conclusion?

Give it a time window and one MicroBank case identifier.

In our controlled scenario, Ledger has zero desired replicas after a recorded configuration change.

That is an observation. Its relationship to the delayed case is a hypothesis to check against queue and application evidence.

Require every factual claim to point back to its source and timestamp.

Missing evidence should stay missing in the report.

Work through a bounded example

Observation: a recorded local manifest sets Ledger replicas to zero. Observation: the saved case has not reached its expected Ledger result. Hypothesis: the stopped consumer explains the delay. Missing check: whether the corresponding event was published and is waiting. Keep each item linked to its timestamp and source.

Record typeExample for the saved local caseNext check
ObservationSelected manifest revision declares zero Ledger replicasConfirm the selected workload and revision
ObservationSaved case lacks its expected Ledger resultRetain the case identifier and check time
HypothesisAn unavailable consumer explains the delayInspect the matching publication and queue evidence
UnknownWhether the event reached the intended queueLeave this missing until a scoped read supplies evidence

Do not upgrade a hypothesis to a fact because the explanation sounds plausible.

This is an offline design and evaluation fixture. No model SDK, agent executor, approval service, or live tool integration is supplied by this Markdown lesson. If you implement one, record its actual behavior and the application profile separately before describing it as working.

Try the reasoning exercise

Write the input, expected decision, allowed tools, forbidden action, observed evidence, and stopping condition. Compare the expected result with a labelled fixture first. For a later authorized local run, retain the exact tool calls and independently checked outcome.

Compare your reasoning

Require evidence references before accepting an agent’s explanation. A plausible explanation does not establish that an action was permitted or that the original operation recovered. Keep evidence, proposal, approval, execution, and verification as separate records.

Sources

Prove what you learned

Inspect the result

Record fixture/input, expected decision, allowed/attempted calls, evidence, stop condition and observed outcome.

Explain it in your own words

Explain why your observation supports the stated outcome, and name one thing it does not prove.

Try a small variation

Use one missing-evidence, injected-instruction or changed-target fixture; predict the correct refusal or escalation.

Your evidence should show

  • Record the context/revision or label the work as a paper or prepared fixture.
  • Compare the prediction with the actual result from “Try the reasoning exercise”.
  • Record fixture/input, expected decision, allowed/attempted calls, evidence, stop condition and observed outcome.
  • Explain the transfer challenge and retain the same verification question.
Hint

Separate observations, hypotheses, proposal, independent authorization, execution and verification.

Answer guide: compare after predicting

No. Enforce scope outside generated text and verify the original operation independently.

Compare this with your actual observation. A paper answer is useful reasoning practice; record execution separately.

Recall the platform support contract and independent GitOps ownership. Revisit the previous lesson.

Save the prediction, result and explanation ↓

Your notes and evidence

Record observations, questions, or links to your work. Keep credentials out of your notes.

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